Trade Surplus

“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.” — William Feather

October 11, 2025

Usually, I take a “vacation” each fall by racing around a trail for 24 hours.  This year, I decided to do something different, so I headed out to Colorado in June where I solo-hiked Pikes Peak and found myself caught in—literally IN—a hailing thunderstorm about 500 feet from the summit. After hours of sweaty lower-elevation hiking, I was soaked, freezing, and occasionally lost, trudging through thigh-deep snowdrifts. My numb fingers could barely punch out a text to my loved ones: “So, I’m in a lightning and thunderstorm, and it’s hailing.  I’m hiding under a rock right now.  About 500 ft.  Can’t feel my fingers.”  While deciding whether to risk hypothermia or electrocution, I found myself thinking, This year’s gold and silver rally has been nice.  I hope it has legs.

Then, in August, I headed to Guatemala where I hiked five volcanoes, culminating in a double summit on my last hike.  Between the two volcanoes, after a treacherous descent of Volcan Atitlan, I found myself lost and alone in a foreign country with no cell coverage, with a makeshift barbed wire fence blocking my way as storm clouds rolled in.  I naturally thought, At least I’m not in a thunder-hail storm at 13,500 feet…and I’m pretty sure uranium has a bit further to run. 

And then two weeks ago, I showed up at a 24-hour race and spent a day and night running around a trail thinking, I thought I wasn’t going to do this race this year.

These excursions can be a bit rough on the body, but they absolutely refresh my mind, cleansing it of the accumulated rot left from monitoring the news, following global politics, listening to company conference calls, reading about ridiculous AI deals, and skimming an unending flow of marketing emails pitching the latest Frankensteinian structured investment product promising 73% of the upside of a basket of reptile-themed memecoins with downside protection linked to the number of Bad Bunny costume changes during the Super Bowl halftime show. (Yes, I had to research what a Bad Bunny is, and I’m dumber for it.)      

“I’m on performance enhancing drugs, so I may cause drowsiness.” — Jay London

I don’t often talk about short-term performance because I don’t expect many of the positions we buy to work within one year, though I don’t complain when they do.  I typically lurk in the 2–5-year investment horizon wasteland, which allows us the flexibility to patiently let ideas work. We give our ugly ducklings time to turn into beautiful swans. Actually, some of our ducklings have been so homely, we did extremely well when they just matured into solid 6’s with dad bods and mildly receding hairlines.   

We don’t celebrate when we have a good quarter or two, and we don’t panic when we have short-term pullbacks.  That said, we’ve just wrapped up our best two consecutive quarters ever, even while holding a decent amount of cash.  Over the last two quarters, our Conservative accounts posted gains in the 20–27% range, our Aggressive accounts were in the 42–58% range, and our Moderate and Moderately Aggressive accounts fell in between. More importantly, our two-, three-, and five-year returns have been outstanding and significantly higher than benchmarks. No, no…we’re not celebrating.    

This strong short- and long-term performance has been driven by two core bets—uranium and precious metals. By way of example, Cameco (CCJ) and Energy Fuels (UUUU) are up about 900% over the last five years, and even our “underperforming” uranium holdings are well into the triple digit returns.  After a weak first quarter for uranium (and the broader market), we capitalized on the dip to increase our positions.  Many of those additions have doubled in value over the last six months.  In precious metals, gold is up 46% and silver 60% in 2025, with our core mining stocks rallying 125–135%. Rising concerns about inflation, debt levels, economic growth, global trade, currency stability, and financial warfare have fueled the latest love affair with gold and silver. Again, not celebrating.         

A good portion of our long-term gains often occur in 6–18 month bursts, and I don’t know whether this latest burst is nearing its end or has room to run. That said, I’m certainly more cautious today than I was in March. Sharp moves like these are hard to sustain and prone to reversals or pauses.

“I gain weight and lose it again in inevitable cycles.” — Gerard Depardieu

Enter our Core-Tactical strategy. We hold core positions in key investments at targeted weightings—say, 25% in uranium for our Aggressive accounts (for illustration). If uranium stocks drop, that weighting shrinks; if they surge, it grows, assuming their moves outpace the rest of the portfolio. I don’t obsess over daily or weekly fluctuations, tweaking shares to cling to that 25%. After a pullback, I let the dust settle, then tactically add to build the position back toward our target. After a rally pushes it well above, I trim, booking some gains and moderating position risk.

There’s another tactical component to our positioning, and that involves the mix of securities held in our key positions.  For example, our precious metals position consists of exposure to gold, silver, established producing gold and silver mining stocks, and junior gold and silver equities.  It’s similar for our uranium and energy holdings.  Over time, I’ll tactically shift the mix of securities within each play opportunistically to both manage risk and take advantage of value discrepancies.

Core weightings shift with value and conviction. If our thesis strengthens, we may increase the core weighting. Conversely, as prices approach our sell target, we trim, eventually exiting fully. Chasing perfect timing risks missing great opportunities or riding a position well past its peak. Instead, we ease in during dips and out during rallies, tactically trading around our core while adjusting its size as conditions change. Our aim? Capture the chunky 80% of a move, leaving the top and bottom 10% for the hopeless romantics, degenerates, and gamblers. We’re not pigs…or we’re at least well-groomed, domesticated, indoor pigs.

“When you are insane, you are busy being insane.” — Sylvia Plath

The pace of our trading in 2025 has been elevated, driven by the tactical sales in our rallying precious metals and uranium holdings. These sales have been gradual and deliberate, with smaller, frequent sales, making our trade activity look...insane busy. 

I’ve also reduced our core precious metals allocation, particularly in Aggressive accounts. At their peak, these accounts held 25–35% in gold, silver, and mining stocks; now, they’re in the mid-teens. Conservative accounts maintain a 10% exposure. I’ve sold most individual mining stocks, focusing instead on securities tracking the price of gold and silver, and four mining ETFs. Earlier this year, I shifted our exposure more toward silver over gold, a position we’ve maintained. In June, we added a new name, Perpetua Resources (PPTA), recently taking most of our cost out after it doubled. 

I’ve owned gold since it was $275 an ounce, a 20-year hedge against fiscal and monetary mismanagement—deficits, soaring interest costs, global debt, and a stimulus-happy Federal Reserve. Gold rose from 2000 to 2011, then fell 40% over four years, taking five more to reclaim its peak in 2020. This is a reminder that prices can deviate greatly from fundamentals and do so for extended periods. Hence, Core-Tactical. 

I’ve been even more active with our uranium names, our single largest position. As I said in my late March piece, “Volachillity 2025,” “I remain very bullish on uranium over the next several years, even more so following its latest pullback. It’s a terrific candidate for tactical trading as these names can move 25–50% up and down in no time at all. We've experienced these moves before, consistently selling after rallies and buying after pullbacks. The uranium story continues to get stronger with every passing month as the disconnect between supply and demand grows. These names have been in pullback mode recently, so we’ve been buyers. I again expect substantial gains from these recent purchases.”

As mentioned earlier and as you can see from the URNM chart above, those tactical purchases were very well timed.  As I said in March, I’ve done this many times with these names, adding after pullbacks and paring after rallies. Given the latest big rally, I’ve been in paring mode again, making frequent, small tactical sales across individual companies and two industry mining ETFs. I’ve also modestly lowered our core target in Aggressive accounts. Our largest uranium holding, a fund tied to the metal itself, has been largely untouched, modestly increasing our exposure to the price of uranium relative to miners.

Beyond these core bets, I added two closed-end funds, yielding 12% and 7.5%, respectively. I also added two stocks from the energy service space, a sector currently out of favor but attractively valued with plenty of upside potential in the coming years. Both are up modestly since our purchase, but I’d welcome a sell-off to build a larger position in these and other names. One of the two stocks offers an 8–10% dividend yield at our entry price. I also added two international oil companies and five energy company bonds, with 2–5-year maturities yielding 5.5–12.0%.

I’ve also dipped a toe into a consumer retail turnaround story and two high-dividend stocks: one in the battered chemical sector, the other a food company. I bought a small position in these after they had already dropped significantly. Not surprisingly, both have pulled back further since our entry, and I’ve been slowly adding on the decline.

A quick note on our “cash” position.  I’ve been raising cash from our tactical selling.  In more aggressive accounts, much of the cash has gone to the money market fund and stands ready to be quickly put to work as warranted.  In more conservative accounts, I’ve used more of the cash to boost yield with select corporate bonds, closed-end funds, and dividend-yielding equities. This basket approach to yield will help increase our return on “cash” with only a very modest increase in risk.

The Long and the Short of It

Buy low, sell high. I’ve been doing both this year, with a strong emphasis on selling high, and then a little higher, and then a little higher… Gold and silver are popular again. That makes me a little nervous. I don’t like crowds. They’ve had a tremendous move higher for all the reasons we’ve long owned them. I’ll likely continue to pare back on strength while always hunting for one-off opportunities like PPTA. 

When I was building our uranium position back in 2019, the entire industry was valued at only $7 billion and aspired to attain even ugly duckling status. Now, Cameco (CCJ) alone is worth $37 billion, and CNBC is running bullish segments on the industry. It’s not the undiscovered gem it used to be. This latest rally is also benefiting from Trump’s focus on securing critical commodities. This could give our uranium names more near-term support which would mean…yep…more position trimming.

The other key point I’ll leave you with is that I’m not going to force anything with our cash. I’ve long emphasized that I don’t diversify for its own sake and that even our Aggressive accounts can sit 100% in cash. I’m cautious and wary of many things professionally, one of which is hubris after a strong run—pride precedes the fall. It’s tempting to feel infallible, to stretch beyond your disciplined style and core competencies, and chase marginal opportunities after a period of outstanding returns.  Young Ken learned that lesson firsthand years ago. Somewhat Less Young Ken is very comfortable building cash and waiting for the next fat pitch. We’re in good company—Warren Buffett is doing the same. This tidy, housebroken pig will be patiently searching for the next flock of ugly ducklings.

Best, 

Ken Bell, CFA, MBA, swine and waterfowl aficionado

Aspera Financial, LLC

The Market Rubbernecker is associated with Aspera Financial, LLC, an investment management and financial planning firm based in the Cary, Raleigh, and Durham area of North Carolina. This and all Market Rubbernecker missives and musings (written, oral, or mimed) are subject to the disclaimers, disavowals, and hindquarter-coverings found at www.asperafinancial.com/aboutrubbernecker.o.